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J.P. Morgan Quantifies Risks and Rewards of a Concentrated Stock Position

40% of Russell 3000 stocks have suffered a permanent 70%+ catastrophic loss

J.P. Morgan Quantifies Risks and Rewards of a Concentrated Stock Position

J.P. Morgan has published a 42-page study entitled The Agony & The Ecstasy: The Risks & Rewards of a Concentrated Stock Position. Analyzing both S&P 500 and Russell 3000 stock performance from 1980 through 2014, J.P. Morgan reached several sobering conclusions:

  • Over the past 25 years, there has been substantial “creative destruction.” Even in the S&P 500 — the most prestigious index of American business — an estimated 320 companies were removed for reasons of business distress. “What this tells us is that companies, even very successful ones, face a steady drumbeat of competitive, regulatory and operational risks.”
  • Approximately 40% of all Russell 3000 companies have suffered a permanent 70% decline in their stock’s value, often due to factors outside of management’s control. These exogenous factors include commodity price risks, changes in U.S. or foreign government policy on tariffs and/or trade, unconstrained expansion by competitors, and technological innovation. “Even the best management team is hard-pressed to cope with these types of unforeseeable challenges.”
  • A “meaningful number of companies” are always “suffering sharp, unrecovered price declines at any given time, even during an economic expansion.”

While acknowledging that stock concentration can be an effective engine of wealth creation, it concluded that “continued concentration may ultimately destroy wealth.”

StockShield’s patented risk management solutions — both the Stock Protection Fund and ESOP Protection Trust — are premised on the harsh realities that J.P. Morgan highlights: the loss of wealth caused by continued stock concentration with no protection in place. Our primary objective is to reduce the number of large losses caused by stock concentration while preserving the opportunity for concentrated stock holders to generate substantial wealth well in excess of broad market returns.

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